Weekly Superposition Event in the DOW October 2018

The Armstrong Reversal System at times generates special Reversals that are called "Superposition Events". I prefer to explain these by example because their generation is confusing and complicated.

In physics, the superposition principle states that if there are two or more stimuli at a given point in time, the response will be the result of adding all the responses.

I want to emphasize: "at a given point in time" which means at the same time, simultaneously.

Martin Armstrong uses this term incorrectly for Revision Signals which borrow from the future, or are created in hindsight, meaning they are not created at the same time.

Here we watch in real time how the system injects such a signal, in the DOW on Monday, October 15, 2018.

In this case, a daily bearish is elected on Thursday 2018-10-11, a weekly bearish is elected on Friday 2018-10-12. Then on Monday (after the event) that Revision Signal comes out of the blue because the system discovers that it has been wrong.

In the private blog:

US Share Market Afternoon Update
By: Marty Armstrong
Thursday, October 11, 2018

The Dow is trading at 25360 after we got the mid-day rally. A close today below 25454 will keep the market weak. A closing BELOW 25294 today should signal a further decline and the next low may unfold on Monday. If we get this sell signal, then we should move to the next Weekly Bearish which lies at the 24965 level and if that is elected tomorrow, then we should test the Monthly Bearish in the 23 zone next week.

We are setting the stage for a real interesting outcome here right on time for the WEC

The DOW closed below 25294 at 25052.83, so we got the sell signal.

The Markets for the Week of 10/15/2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Monday, October 15, 2018
...
We encountered a Superposition situation on the Weekly Level in the Dow electing two long-term term Weekly Bullish Reversals against a Short-term Weekly Bearish.

What this means that you go short on Thursday and Friday, make a loss, and the following Monday Martin comes out saying that the system was right again. These two long-term Weekly Bullish Reversals were NOT available on Friday. They come the next week.

If you look at the chart, even on its own terms it is not correct because the bullish movement is shorter term than the bearish movement.

In pure technical terms, after studying the internal structure of the Reversal System, one can see that what happens is pure ambiguity as follows:

The Reversal System is run separately for each aggregation period: Daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly. In addition to that, in each aggregation period, it is split up once again in a bearish instance and a bullish instance. All these instances do not know about each other - they are in fact trampling on each other. Sometimes, and this happens quite frequently, they elect reversals in opposite directions. The computer does not resolve this situation but it reports it some time later. Such conflicts are reported even between different aggregation periods, making the situation one level more ambiguous and confusing. Such as the creation of monthly bullish Reversals around the time of the creation of weekly bearish Reversals.

A more insidious aspect is that Armstrong has manual control over which reversals are reported and which are suppressed. This gives him a front running opportunity. See: Socrates The Market Manipulator

 

For a general description of such signals, see: Revision Signals

 

See also:

Monthly Reversal Failures December 2018

Socrates Long Term Past Performance Review

Quarterly Superposition Event in Gold 2015 

Socrates Subscriber Testimonials

 

The Global Correlation Model

In one of his alarmist posts Will the Elite Wake Up in Time & Confront The Left Climate Fear Campaigns?, forecaster Martin Armstrong praises his computer as usual for being able to sort out the correlations:

To survive this total complete mess, it will take a computer to monitor everything and sort out the correlations.

In one of his recent reports that carry a very high price tag, he made use of such a correlation as demonstrated here: The Martin Armstrong Gold / Silver Ratio Fallacy which indicates that such correlation may not hold for the future for long, only in hindsight.

And his results show that there is no value in correlating markets in the way that he does it.

And there is no evidence ANYWHERE in his writings that he used the correlation between markets successfully to provide better forecasting.

Still he makes these claims. In Socrates – Artificial Intelligence (Real) he writes amongst other hyperbole:

He also monitors the entire world news feeds and looks for fundamental news events that correlate behind the global trends.

I know with 100% certainty that his programs do NOT use news feeds as input at all. I have analyzed his systems, and according to my analysis, Socrates applies the same single-dimensional logic based exclusively, without exception, on the price history to every market in isolation. For some background, see:

The Reversal System - Engineering Perspective

For those who are interested in correlations between markets, this has been studied for years, see Stock correlation network.

Correlation queries have been available as various online computer services like here at aistockcharts.com and here.

Correlation studies are standard part of broker services today.

Until this day, Martin Armstrong's so called correlation models have been unavailable. At best, single studies have been manual executions not reaching the level of complexity as seen elsewhere.

Socrates still presents a flat earth model where each market is analyzed in isolation, merely based on its own time series, not correlated with anything.

Martin Armstrong planned in 2013 to build the Global Correlation Model. Here in 2014, it becomes obvious that this, while still not available, aims to be no more than expressing technical analysis of markets in terms of various currencies.