Martin Armstrong Socrates Scam: July 2022

Tuesday 26 July 2022

Martin Armstrong: Putin takes Ukraine in Three Days

Martin Armstrong - always the smartest guy after the fact - reverses his forecast positions after his Ukraine war predictions flop

In World War III Beginning Stages Now Martin Armstrong writes (quote, emphasis added):

Feb 2, 2022
Putin has wiped out the air force and owns the skies over Ukraine. He could annihilate the country in less than 3 days, but he is not doing that to the West’s befuddlement.

Martin Armstrong is clearly whipping up fear in preparation of the sale of his snake oil with the promise to profit from the unfolding events: At the bottom of his page, he advertises his new War Computer Report that he has not even written yet.

A few months later in WWIII is not Worth Supporting Ukraine in a Land Grab he reverses his position as follows (quote, emphasis added):

Jul 16, 2022
Russia has been unable to use its air power because NATO is providing Ukraine with all the tactical information needed so they only need to turn on their radar minutes before launching and as such Russia cannot destroy those systems which have been supplanted by NATO.

Computer never wrong?

I can't report on one of his forecast failures without tripping over bigger ones in the process. Here they are (all Ukraine related):

Re-defines the objective of a failed forecast to match the new reality: War cycle high reserved for Middle East war (which did not happen) is re-defined and re-used for the Ukraine War

On Jun 12, 2014, Martin Armstrong gave us a lecture about conflicts in the Middle East driving his war cycle. In Brain-Dead Foreign Policy – Destabilizing the Middle East – Feeding the War Cycle he writes (quote)

The War Cycle is doing what it was intended to do. I have warned that this is going to be much worse that the previous cycles building in intensity and broadening to a global perspective.

On Jul 9, 2014, Martin Armstrong continues in Crude Oil & The Future (quote)

It is poised to rally into 2017 and it appears this is lining up with our war models..

On Aug 2, 2022, in It’s a Matter of Confidence he uses The Fan Email Confidence Trick to give himself credit for forecasting that some kind of war would happen between 2011 and 2022 (emphasis added):

COMMENT: Marty; I really do not think people give you enough credit whilst they all pretend to claim they called it correctly just a couple of months ago. I was at your 2011 WEC in Philadelphia. A friend bought the ticket and dragged me there. I have to say, aside from your prediction that war would turn up in 2014 which coincided with Ukraine, ...

Predicts a Coup that never happened and pats himself on the Back for it

On Jun 24 2023, Martin Armstrong Russian Coup & Civil War again uses The Fan Email Confidence Trick to pat himself on the back for predicting a coup and subsequent civil war (which he didn't) and which never happened (quote):

COMMENT: Marty, Socrates has simply outdone itself. You warned that Putin could face a coup by May/June 2023. That was a year ago. Nobody can beat Socrates, as you said at the WEC, not even you. Your gift to humanity is why they hate you so much.

After the event of course. But there was no coup! Nothing to see! He didn't get it. It was not a Russian coup and it was over on that day. The fact that he did not see this from his vantage point clearly indicates that he is clueless about Russia, Putin and military matters in general.

On the same day, he advertises three private blog posts on the subject behind his news letter paywall "Private Blog".

Computer never wrong?

I think I have made the point once again that his forecasts are complete bullshit. And he knows it.

If you really need further explanation of how these forecasting tricks work, please read:

Martin Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model (ECM)

Economic Confidence Model, just a play on numbers of 8.6

and Socrates Forecast Array Nonsense.

Please see also:

Major failed Predictions

Martin Armstrong's Informant Behind the Curtain

Martin Armstrong The Hyper Fool

Tuesday 5 July 2022

Martin Armstrong Cult Member quits Socrates after 15 Years

Sufficiently dismayed

Below is the YouTube testimonial of a Martin Armstrong cult member quoted in full. It took him over 15 years to finally discover that he has been scammed. Not without the help of this site.

Please note that "Canadian Day trader" who practiced the well-established shill routine. Most likely, that shill is LateralusYellow, that figure that runs the Reddit Armstrong Economics Fan Forum and had a brief stint in The Facebook Martin Armstrong and Socrates Traders Group.

In a YouTube post Bill W comments on the YouTube video (his channel has been deleted after this was posted):

Martin Armstrong: The Collapse of the Republic on June 26 2022:

@Lui Bunting Ok! I just spent 2.5 hours reading through your site. It has raised sufficient questions for me to think carefully about my experiences. Keeping it very brief, I have always enjoyed Martin Armstrongs historical take on economics. I attending his Orlando conferences in 2016 and 2017 and then once more in 2019. I met a Canadian Day trader at the 2016 event who seemed intelligent and unpretentious. He said that he now foley used Socrates for his trading and it earned him a very good living. I finally joined the Pro Socrates for about 3 months in 2018. I was still working and a member of many other sites and advisors at the time but decided I would see what it had to offer. I was a bit disappointed and downgraded a level shortly after. I have received about 4 or Martins reports including the Trade of The Century. History lesson was great BUT I noticed there seemed to be a fair a mount of repetition in the material and there was really NO "how to do it" at the end of the book. I also purchased the Manipulation of the World Economy book and once again found it interesting but somewhat repetitive. Your site reinforced some concerns I have had about Martin's blog for a couple of years now. I agree with a lot (not all) of what Martin says about what is happening in todays world. However, I had already begun to get frustrated about the way he would answer questions on his blog. The questions always seem to be, well from perhaps less intelligent folks and rarely did they address any detailed deep issues but rather broad and often self congratulatory towards MA. I also noticed the typos and wondered why these were not addressed. As regards Socrates, I often purchased the market reports, not expensive, but noticed occasional errors in the reports that got the price for say gold or oil completely wrong in the report. I could not understand why that would happen. Finally, much is made of the Socrates tool being right at certain turning points e.g 1987. The Sovereign Bond Crisis for me started around 2012 as the ECB and the EU embarked on a course which will bankrupt that EU market BUT that 2015 date didn't not seem to produce a big event. I would argue the big event is happen now! Additionally the much flaunted March turning point for this year seemed like a fizzle as well. I think his predictions about the dollar and the US market soaring have some credibility since I agree with the thesis that money will likely flood into the uS when the financial crisis in Europe and probably the far East get going.
HOWEVER, what your site has done is raised these nagging concerns I have been having about Armstrong, his writings and his model over the past 2 - 3 years. I am blessed with funds and have never committed any to Martins forecasts (so no losses). But I am now sufficiently dismayed so as to pull my $50 monthly subscription (not that big compared to a couple of others I subscribe to but certainly 2-3 times that for some other advisor sites that actually make specific recommendations. Consequently you site has had an immediate effect. Not sure why you dont post a link to your site for all of MA's videos. Took a while to trawl through your material but thanks.

It looks like nobody is immune against being a fool.exploited by Martin Armstrong.

Even Prof Dave Collum of the Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology at New York Cornell University quotes Martin Armstrong's gossip on his Twitter account:

More dangerous than covid... on July 30 2022:

Judge Seals Middleton Case

Thereby promoting that criminal and supporting his noble cause. I guess that is where the New York tax dollars go. What an irony! Remember: Don't shoot the messenger, because that's MY job!