Martin Armstrong - always the smartest guy after the fact - reverses his forecast positions after his Ukraine war predictions flop
In World War III Beginning Stages Now Martin Armstrong writes (quote, emphasis added):
Feb 2, 2022
Putin has wiped out the air force and owns the skies over Ukraine. He could annihilate the country in less than 3 days, but he is not doing that to the West’s befuddlement.
Martin Armstrong is clearly whipping up fear in preparation of the sale of his snake oil with the promise to profit from the unfolding events: At the bottom of his page, he advertises his new War Computer Report that he has not even written yet.
A few months later in WWIII is not Worth Supporting Ukraine in a Land Grab he reverses his position as follows (quote, emphasis added):
Jul 16, 2022
Russia has been unable to use its air power because NATO is providing Ukraine with all the tactical information needed so they only need to turn on their radar minutes before launching and as such Russia cannot destroy those systems which have been supplanted by NATO.
Computer never wrong?
I can't report on one of his forecast failures without tripping over bigger ones in the process. Here they are (all Ukraine related):
Re-defines the objective of a failed forecast to match the new reality: War cycle high reserved for Middle East war (which did not happen) is re-defined and re-used for the Ukraine War
On Jun 12, 2014, Martin Armstrong gave us a lecture about conflicts in the Middle East driving his war cycle. In Brain-Dead Foreign Policy – Destabilizing the Middle East – Feeding the War Cycle he writes (quote)
The War Cycle is doing what it was intended to do. I have warned that this is going to be much worse that the previous cycles building in intensity and broadening to a global perspective.
On Jul 9, 2014, Martin Armstrong continues in Crude Oil & The Future (quote)
It is poised to rally into 2017 and it appears this is lining up with our war models..
On Aug 2, 2022, in It’s a Matter of Confidence he uses The Fan Email Confidence Trick to give himself credit for forecasting that some kind of war would happen between 2011 and 2022 (emphasis added):
COMMENT: Marty; I really do not think people give you enough credit whilst they all pretend to claim they called it correctly just a couple of months ago. I was at your 2011 WEC in Philadelphia. A friend bought the ticket and dragged me there. I have to say, aside from your prediction that war would turn up in 2014 which coincided with Ukraine, ...
Predicts a Coup that never happened and pats himself on the Back for it
COMMENT: Marty, Socrates has simply outdone itself. You warned that Putin could face a coup by May/June 2023. That was a year ago. Nobody can beat Socrates, as you said at the WEC, not even you. Your gift to humanity is why they hate you so much.
After the event of course. But there was no coup! Nothing to see! He didn't get it. It was not a Russian coup and it was over on that day. The fact that he did not see this from his vantage point clearly indicates that he is clueless about Russia, Putin and military matters in general.
On the same day, he advertises three private blog posts on the subject behind his news letter paywall "Private Blog".
Computer never wrong?
I think I have made the point once again that his forecasts are complete bullshit. And he knows it.
If you really need further explanation of how these forecasting tricks work, please read:
Martin Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model (ECM)
Economic Confidence Model, just a play on numbers of 8.6
and Socrates Forecast Array Nonsense.
Please see also:
Martin Armstrong's Informant Behind the Curtain
Martin Armstrong The Hyper Fool
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