The buy / sell signals are available as weekly and monthly signals. They are printed in the daily text reports as "We have generated a (buy|sell) signal[,]? so some caution is required\.".
Trades are initiated one day after the signals appear, at daily close market values. Trades are closed on the trading day after the signals disappear, again at daily close market value.
On average one can see that Socrates advised to buy highs and to sell lows. This is in line with the Reversal System.The numerical results can be seen in the table below:
| Date | Monthly Buy | Monthly Sell | Close Price | P/L [%] | Trade # | Direction |
| 2016-06-06 | 1 | 0 | 25.45 | |||
| 2016-06-07 | 1 | 0 | 25.11 | |||
| 2016-08-31 | 0 | 0 | 25.49 | |||
| 2016-09-01 | 0 | 0 | 26.42 | 5.22% | 1 | long |
| 2016-09-30 | 1 | 0 | 26.43 | |||
| 2016-10-03 | 1 | 0 | 25.96 | |||
| 2016-11-30 | 0 | 0 | 20.83 | |||
| 2016-12-01 | 0 | 0 | 20.66 | -20.42% | 2 | long |
| 2017-02-28 | 1 | 0 | 22.85 | |||
| 2017-03-01 | 1 | 0 | 22.98 | |||
| 2017-03-31 | 0 | 0 | 22.81 | |||
| 2017-04-03 | 0 | 0 | 23.2 | -0.74% | 3 | long |
| 2017-05-01 | 0 | 1 | 21.69 | |||
| 2017-05-02 | 0 | 1 | 21.74 | |||
| 2017-07-31 | 0 | 0 | 22.86 | |||
| 2017-08-01 | 0 | 0 | 22.83 | -5.01% | 4 | short |
| 2018-01-31 | 1 | 0 | 23.75 | |||
| 2018-02-01 | 1 | 0 | 23.7 | |||
| 2018-02-28 | 0 | 0 | 21.35 | |||
| 2018-03-01 | 0 | 0 | 21.57 | -8.99% | 5 | long |
| 2018-05-01 | 1 | 0 | 22.31 | |||
| 2018-05-02 | 1 | 0 | 22.38 | |||
| 2018-05-31 | 0 | 0 | 22.34 | |||
| 2018-06-01 | 0 | 0 | 22.31 | -0.31% | 6 | long |
| 2018-08-31 | 0 | 1 | 18.55 | |||
| 2018-09-04 | 0 | 1 | 18.02 | |||
| 2019-02-26 | 0 | 0 | 22.73 | |||
| 2019-02-27 | 0 | 0 | 22.35 | -24.03% | 7 | short |
| 2019-02-28 | 0 | 1 | 22.24 | |||
| 2019-03-01 | 0 | 1 | 21.7 | |||
| 2019-03-29 | 1 | 0 | 22.42 | |||
| 2019-04-01 | 1 | 0 | 21.96 | -1.20% | 8 | short |
| 2019-04-30 | 0 | 0 | 20.89 | |||
| 2019-05-01 | 0 | 0 | 20.52 | -6.56% | 9 | long |
| 2019-06-28 | 1 | 0 | 25.56 | |||
| 2019-07-01 | 1 | 0 | 24.58 | |||
| 2019-07-12 | 1 | 0 | 26.21 | 6.63% | 10 | long |
| Simple Total: | -55.41% |
That is a 55% loss!
This back test demonstrates the complete failure of the Reversal System. It demonstrates that the system creates trades that are called "whipsaw trades". It proves that Socrates does not contain a functioning trend reversal prediction mechanism that avoids this problem. To me, this is not surprising because to my knowledge, such a (functioning) trend reversal prediction system is not available anywhere. If such a trend reversal prediction system was indeed available, then trend following systems would be obsolete because one would simply trade between turning points, reversing on each turning point.
My burning question would be:
Who is the unfortunate Socrates subscriber trading against, that trader who makes 55% profit? This is not a hypothetical question. For a shocking answer, please refer to: Socrates The Market Manipulator
See also:
Monthly Reversal Failures December 2018
Weekly Superposition Event in the DOW October 2018
Quarterly Superposition Event in Gold 2015
Socrates Subscriber Testimonials
Socrates Forecast Array Nonsense
