Global Market Watch - Hindsight is always 20/20

I have found that Martin Armstrong's Global Market Watch is "always right".  The problem is that it is "right" AFTER the events.

Like any other Technical Analysis of stocks, they never really predicts anything.  They are stating facts after the events. Since technical analysis is always  trend-following, it gives you the illusion of prediction success, when in fact, it is simply following the trend.

As Armstrong stated himself in his tutorial on Global Market Watch, a trading interval is not over until it logs the FINAL closing value.  You could use "what-if" to see what may be predicted through trend-following technical analysis by simply making up closing numbers.  But if the closing numbers are not in, such analysis is unable to predict where it will close.

He also lists the pattern number that his computer recognizes or classifies as the new one. His pattern number runs in the six digits.  If everything is so deterministic according to his ECM, then you should only have so many patterns.  But the sheer number of patterns displayed on his GMW is too high for any traders to utilize.

Furthermore, He does not state what the confidence level of each pattern is, which could have been calculated using theory of statistics.  At any rate, if his computer cannot find such pattern in its current catalog, his computer would have just added it as a new one, as "New Pattern Developing".  No wonder that there are so many patterns into six digits. I am not sure how so many patterns can help, if there is no confidence estimate for each. Worse yet, there can always be a new pattern, and that will basically destroy anyone’s existing trading plan.  But of course, the computer is "always right" and unemotional.  It would have been a new pattern after all.  But what are you going to do for your trades in progress, when his computer gives you a curve ball of  "New Pattern".
You know, maybe telling me the actual estimated probability of going up versus going down would be far more useful.  Oh, I forgot.  His computer probably cannot do that, or else it cannot maintain to be "always right". 

Armstrong has often stated that his GMW cannot be used for trading, only as an overview. Of course I agree with that.

He then concluded that for successful trades, one would need to use his Reversal System and Forecast Arrays. He uses this statement as a differentiator, a marketing tool. But nothing could be further from the truth. That is because all his other tools, like most Technical Analysis tools including indicators are either simpler or more convoluted forms of pattern recognition that transform a time series going back in time. None of them has ever shown to be effective.