Major failed Predictions

Up to The Mother of all Forecast Claims where you can explore even his legendary successful predictions that Martin Armstrong never made and other miracles.

 

The following predictions made by Martin Armstrong are major in a sense that they are aligned with the fundamental cycles of his models. They are clear enough to be verifiable. Their due dates are in the past, so checking the facts is easy.

China new Financial Capitol of the World by 2015.75

On October 15, 2010 Armstrong incorrectly predicted that China would become the new
Financial Capitol of the World by 2015. See Show Me the Money at page 6

China will take the torch as the new Financial Capitol of the World by 2015.75 and that is the ultimate irony. The nation that revolted against capitalism, embraced Marx, will become the center of capitalism because the West refuses to reform. The NY Bankers won't let reform happen and they are too busy lining their pockets. They are in reality burning down the house to find that dime they dropped somewhere.

Meanwhile, the US remains the world's largest economy by some $7.2trn. See: List of countries by GDP (nominal)

 

USD Rally, EUR/USD Collapse

As major theme, a permanent prediction for years, Martin Armstrong has been projecting that the Euro would collapse, and a USD rally would break the back of the monetary system. We have a report that Martin gave a live public interview in 2015 in Athens where he advised the audience to buy and hoard US Dollars. At that time the EUR/USD was trading at 1.08. Despite his calls on the USD would rise dramatically and his numerous blog posts with the images of the Euro sinking, five years later the EUR is trading at the high 1.21s.

Gold USD 5,000+ into 2016

In March 2011, Martin Armstrong published the following document that contain the failed prediction:
HOW & When

THE SPIKE HIGH: ... This would signal an amazing rally may then develop with a high at least at the 5,000 level and perhaps even 12,000 by 1215.75 if we held the 1,500 level in June..

In March 2012, at the peak of the Gold rally, the 30 year all-time high, Martin Armstrong published the following two documents that contain the failed prediction:

Will Gold reach $5,000 +?

P13: A 21 year bull market in stocks points to 2015 and a 17.2 year high in gold points to 2016.

P14: However, if gold exceeds this level and it too forms the subsequent support, now we are looking at the $3,500 to $5,000 target zone. This is where we see the potential for Gold is a true economic meltdown of Confidence.

GOLD $5,000 +

P13: Technical support will be at the $800 level for 2010. Holding this will keep the bullish momentum in place. We should see a temporary high in 2010-11 with a retest of support perhaps into 2012-13 with a rally into 2016.

Meanwhile, in March 2020, four years after the target date, the price of Gold is still below the all time high in 2012.

US Recession starting in October 2015

On April 26, 2013 Armstrong incorrectly predicted that starting from October 2015, the rise of the US Dollar would create a recession in the US economy via massive short covering. Back to the Future There has not been a recession in the US economy between October 2015 and July 2019. List of recessions in the United States

Sovereign Debt Default "Big Bang" in October 2015

See: 2015.75 ECM date was a big bummer for Armstrong
Eating his own dog food, he changed the definition of the "Big Bang" after the forecast failure.

Big Banks go bust starting in October 2015

On December 31, 2013 Armstrong incorrectly predicted that big banks will start to go bust after October 2015. What Kind of Trader is Trading In June 2019 no big banks went bankrupt since 2015.

Crude Oil Rally 2014 - 2017

On July 9, 2014 Armstrong incorrectly predicted that Crude Oil prices would rally into 2017 in line with his war model. His war model being driven this time by conflict in the Middle East. See: Brain-Dead Foreign Policy – Destabilizing the Middle East – Feeding the War Cycle

Regarding the price of oil, see: Crude Oil & The Future At the time of this prediction, the WTI Crude Oil futures price was USD102.93, and it declined to USD26.21 on February 11 2016, not exceeding USD60.42 on December 29, 2017 Crude Oil Prices - 70 Year Historical Chart

It is useful to consider Martin Armstrong's claims that his computer correlates everything. See The Global Correlation Model and It’s More than just a Debt Bubble – It’s a Social Bubble A recession would necessarily reduce oil consumption and produce an oil glut because oil consumption is positively correlated with economic activity. It is also unlikely that a war would break out over the control of oil resources during such a glut.

European Central Bank ECB failure in 2018

On June 30, 2017 Armstrong incorrectly predicted the collapse of the ECB in 2018.  ARMSTRONG: Major Central Bank May Fail Next Year.  In 2018, no European bank failure and no associated stock market rally as predicted.
 

European Financial, Political and Banking Chaos in 2019

On March 29, 2019 Armstrong incorrectly predicted Financial, Political & Banking Chaos in Europe Going into May. Financial, Political & Banking Chaos in Europe Going into May. In May 2019, the economy in Europe was unaffected by any form of chaos.

Swiss Franc Collapse Prediction in 2014

In this interview (the account of the interviewer Greg Hunter has been deleted by YouTube and the video is gone)  Martin Armstrong-Economic Downturn Will Take World to War at 5:40 Martin Armstrong tells us how he 1) consulted Swiss gov 2) told them the peg would collapse.
First, he never advised any government in his entire life. See: Which Government has asked Martin Armstrong for Advice?
In The Swiss for Year-End 2014 we read his call on the swiss franc where he predicted that chf would fall against the usd. Just two weeks later the franc soared 30%. And 2.5 years later it's still there where it was in the end of 2014.

 

Martin Armstrong's failed Real Estate Prediction (Link)

On a separate page. Please note that Real Estate is the biggest market in most countries, so this is significant. Once again this shows how he makes things up.
 

Prediction: Disease Cycle Peak in 2022

Martin Armstrong defines a rigid time machinery that his Disease Cycle has to align itself with. He predicted the peak of it for 2022, with a Panic Cycle. In The Disease Cycle Turned Up – Next Peak 2022 he writes on Jan 26, 2020:

There is a 13-year cycle in Influenza outbreaks. The last pandemic with respect to the strain of the Influenza was 2009. The next one of those to reach a possible level of a pandemic will be in 2022. This is where the largest death toll appears to be most likely. Keep in mind that the last deadly pandemic began in 1918 but it lasted for two years into 2020. Clearly, the worst year ahead appears to be 2022.

Nothing happened in 2022. But he keeps trying. At some point, like a broken clock is right twice a day, he might get lucky and his cult followers will claim for the next few hundred years that once there was that legendary forecaster ...

See also:

The Failed Emerging Markets Meltdown Prediction

The Martin Armstrong Lie Detector