Thursday 27 February 2020

2015.75 ECM date was a big bummer for Armstrong

Martin Armstrong calling stock market to peak at 2015.75 was WRONG. In

Will the Dow Reach 30,000 by 2015? we read:
In other words, the real peak in equity is targeted to the next peak in the Economic Confidence Model 2015.75.
Armstrong calling bond market to peak at 2015.75 was WRONG. Let's see what he has to say in

Big Bang v REPO
Some would think that the forecast was wrong simply because the prices have not crashed. We have had the Bank of Japan saying they will buy government bonds on an unlimited basis. This is NOT a free market. It has “crashed” from the perspective of participation.
Wait a minute. Is he taking two guesses for the same date? That's cheating. And NEITHER predictions came true. Instead, with HINDSIGHT, he explained that bond markets crashed from the perspective of participation. Really?? Shouldn't your AI computer know about it, and predict that AHEAD of time instead of AFTER-the-fact?

Bond market participation?? That's why Armstrong called it as peak of Government Confidence, because NO ONE on Earth will measure that for him to be able to refute him, when he even does NOT define exactly what is government confidence.

Well, the best measurement IS the bond price.

Last time I checked, bonds did NOT crash. "Great" macro calls on his all important ECM date, when he himself nor his computer knows what will happen. What is the likelihood of him getting other things right, when the ECM calls are not right?

See also:

Major failed Predictions












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