Sunday 14 July 2019

Revision to Socrates report - Changes made post-event

As AnonymousCoder has discovered and documented below, subscription reports from Socrates often have revisions of bearish/bullish reversal that are posted after the turn of market.  This is obviously out-right cheating, since hindsight is always 20/20.  Telling the subscribers that the market has turned, only when the market already made the turn, but NOT beforehand, is truly useless "forecast", or should I say "hind"cast??

---- From AnonymousCoder ----

Socrates Weekly Reversal System fails, misses important Rally. Still Martin Armstrong claims Success.

In the Private Blog https://www.ask-socrates.com/Blog/Article/5d11792c1dd9531ae8f54b67 Martin Armstrong claims:

Gold & the Rally to $1432
Tuesday, 25 June 2019
By: Marty Armstrong
...
We have so far elected three Weekly Bullish Reversals from the last low ...
...

and in the report:

SOCRATES Detailed Analysis
THE IMMEDIATE ANALYTICAL STANCE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Mon. Jun. 24, 2019:
...
This market on the weekly level has been making new highs since the last low established 4 weeks ago, which is a turn to the upside for now. We did elect four Bullish Reversals which implies we have had a broad change in trend on this level.
...


So let us check that briefly:

From some time before the last low, generously counting, we move forward in time and track:

Closest Weekly published Bullish Reversals:

Date            Close Reversal   Comment
2019-05-10 128740  132590   Reversal too high to elect
2019-05-17 127570  131480   Reversal too high to elect
2019-05-24 128360  129100   Reversal too high to elect
2019-05-31 131110  131480   Reversal too high to elect
2019-06-07 134610  136270   Reversal too high to elect
2019-06-14 134450  134990   Reversal too high to elect
2019-06-21 140010  144370   Reversal too high to elect

This is evidence that not a single published Weekly Bullish Reversal was elected during this seven week rally. Unfortunately, Socrates pushed the Reversals higher and higher, out of reach.

The three reversals he claims in the blog, and the four reversals in the report are fake phantom reversals that cannot be traded because nobody can see them in time. They are created in hindsight, after the fact.

With this, we now have evidence that the use of phantom fake reversals, the claim of their election, is systemic fraud. The user is shown a track record of multiple profitable buy signals (election of Bullish Reversals following a positive trend) where in fact the system failed every time to create them.

These "Reversals" are generated and counted in hindsight, as designed, intentionally, coded by a computer programmer.

This is very important because the system does not provide any other history that shows its performance record.

Update May 2023

For years, I have avoided to refer more often to this effect which I still have all details of., with thousands of data points across different instruments, not only gold. I intended to research the Reversal System more rigorously which I finally did.
 
The shifting higher in value of Bullish Reversals out of reach of election is still a mystery to me. The latest explanation of a similar effect confirmed by others is that the system has filters that allow the operator to hide some reversals while showing others, opening a back door for market manipulation.

For Armstrong, the gold market plays a special role in this, and this example confirms my suspicion that he manipulated the gold market, especially gold mining shares, trading against his Socrates subscribers and blog followers. The suppression of the buy signals would have allowed him to cover his short positions under favorable conditions at the expense of his followers whom he fed bearish signals in his blog posts at the time.

For the full details of this episode, read more at:


Socrates The Market Manipulator

and

Quarterly Superposition Event in Gold 2015


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