The End of Bitcoin Currency, another failed forecast from Armstrong

Martin Armstrong wrote on Nov 26th, 2018 in

Bitcoin – The End of Cryptocurrencies?

A monthly closing below 2950 will confirm the long-term trend is turning down. A year-end closing below 4150 will point to a drop back to 775 area. It was a trading vehicle – not an investment class for the long-term.

Bitcoin closed below 4150 with a closing price of 3747.39 at the end of 2018 but instead it rallied. .

In his statements above, although Armstrong didn't give a target date for the drop back to the 775 area, one could expect that it should reach that 775 value in 2019.

This is a price forecast that he made based on a Bearish Reversal in hie Socrates Reversal System. That forecast is not negated by a turning point in his Forecast Arrays, otherwise he would not have made that forecast. So Socrates failed in this case.

If Armstrong expected that the drop to happen in 2, 5, or 10 years, he would have stated so.  Obviously, since our Sun eventually will become a Red Giant, and engulfs and scorch the entire Earth, NO indefinite time-frame is acceptable for ANY economic predictions, since an economy nor human would exist on Earth.  I assume that Martin Armstrong is a fairly intelligent man, and would understand that a "prediction" without any time frame is worthless.

Since he did NOT state a specific time frame in his sentence, based on the regular usage of English, year 2019 will be implied.  Otherwise, Armstrong would have stated that "a year-end closing below 4150 will point to a drop back to 775 area [within 2 years]" or something like like that.

So what happens so far in 2019, if you had shorted bitcoin following Armstrong's advice, on July 14th, 2019, bitcoin is trading at about $10400, almost 3X of the closing price of 2018.  If you shorted bitcoin, your loss would be a whopping negative 200%!!


See also:

Major failed Predictions
Monthly Reversal Failures December 2018
Martin Armstrong Financial Advice: Do not buy the Low!
Socrates Long Term Past Performance Review
Monthly Reversal Failures December 2018
Quarterly Superposition Event in Gold 2015