Sunday 14 July 2019

Prediction of ECM model for 2015.75

From the excellent work by trulycoined at bitcointalk.org such as in Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion where he argued with Martin Armstrong, we know that Martin Armstrong predicted in Back to the Future that
The dollar MUST rise for that will put the maximum amount of pressure on the global economy creating massive short-covering as even governments borrowed in dollars to reduce interest costs. This will be the straw that breaks the back of the economy turning the US economy into recession from 2015.75.
Never happened.



Article in Die Welt 3 May 2015.
US-Finanzprophet Armstrong sagt Ende des Euro voraus
Auf ein Datum für den Euro-Zerfall will er sich nicht festlegen, einen anderen Crash hingegen sagt er taggenau voraus: "Lassen Sie auf alle Fälle die Finger von Staatsanleihen. Die sind heillos überbewertet. Hier wird es zum großen Crash kommen. Mein Modell sagt den 1. Oktober voraus."

He does not want to commit himself to a date for the euro collapse, but he predicts another crash to the day: "In any case, stay away from government bonds. They are hopelessly overrated. There will be a big crash here. My model predicts October 1st."
Never happened.



Days later (7 may 2015), in that same Magazine Die Welt, Martin Armstrong makes another prediction for the same event, but with a different and far less specific date!
Es wird zu einem großen Crash kommen (There will be a big crash)
Die Welt: Was sagt Ihr Modell?
Armstrong: Der große Crash wird kommen. 2017 oder 2018.

Die Welt: What does your model say?
Armstrong: The big crash will come. 2017 or 2018.
Never happened.

Most importantly, this episode is another piece of incontrovertible evidence that Martin Armstrong's forecasts are worthless and fraudulent because they are part of his scheme to produce ambiguous statements that he can later cherry-pick from to make it appear that his model is infallible.

In another article that same vintage year (2015):
Martin Armstrong, consultor financiero independiente (content translated from Spanish)
A government debt crisis will begin in October this year (historically, none have survived) that will peak in 2017, and governments will be forced to be more aggressive with citizens to maintain their power, with more taxes. and suppressing as far as possible the right to vote.
Never happened and debt continues increasing (2019: c$244trn).



In this article from 29 Sep 2015, so literally on the day of his grand "big bang" forecast:

Is Martin Armstrong's debt crisis upon us?

Martin Armstrong is quoted as saying:
The fact that we have the stock markets crashing into the 2015.75 turning point rather than making a major high is indicative of the future we should expect to unfold

Never happened.


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