The Failed Emerging Markets Meltdown Prediction

Before I start, it is useful to know the fact that Martin Armstrong rarely predicts anything in a verifiable way. He often systematically creates conditions around his statements that render them worthless. See A Self-fulfilling Financial Forecast.


However, in case of the emerging markets, he predicted a  meltdown as early as 2016 with a target date of 2018. Obviously it did not happen. No emerging markets meltdown.

Here are some excerpts from his publications where he forecast the event:

Private blog
Gold and the March High
By: Marty Armstrong
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
...
The concerns are pensions and Europe not to mention emerging markets where the example of Brazil as such a success story is turning into a nightmare that may result in the impeachment of its head of state. The collapse in emerging markets will significantly hurt pensions who bought dollar denominated debt to get some return when domestic rates when to effectively zero. ...

Video 2016-06-12
December Gold Update
https://vimeo.com/194098838
...
I have been saying constantly here, is that the only way that's going to happen is for an extremely strong Dollar. It's the higher Dollar that will cause the default in the emerging markets, it's the higher Dollar that will cause basically Europe to start to really disintegrate because all capital will be attracted here. The Federal Reserve will most likely raise interest rates trying to stop the stock market from rising to be criticized for this and the press is always on top of Donald Trump constantly. So we probably call this, oh, he is making a rally to make himself rich and all his buddies. It has nothing to do with that, this is a global world capital flow situation, and we are looking at effectively the drop of the world monetary system which can come into play as early as 2018, we may end up with the Dollar not being the reserve currency by 2020. ...

Fractal Nature of Trading Posted Nov 25, 2016 by Martin Armstrong ... I have been warning that we face a major dollar rally. Only such a rally will break the back of the world economy. A lower dollar will bailout the Emerging Markets where a high dollar will create sovereign defaults around the globe. ...

Private Blog
Gold in the Aftermath of French Election
By: Marty Armstrong
Tuesday, May 9, 2017
... Keep in mind that we still face the potential of a major dollar rally and can blow the doors off of emerging market debt. ...

Private Blog
Canadian Dollar Update
By: Marty Armstrong
Wednesday, July 12, 2017
... The Monetary Crisis appears to start in 2018 and we will need to wait for the German elections in September before this Year From Political Hell concludes. Only then will we see the surge into the greenback and that will set the stage for extreme economic pressure upon everyone, including Trump. A strong dollar will defeat Trump's idea of creating jobs. It will also push emerging markets over the edge. ...

Private Blog
The Markets for the Week of 10/15/2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Monday, October 15, 2018
... The other economic areas, especially emerging markets, are coming under pressure and remain hopeless insofar as reversing the future. They took advantage of low interest rates to sell debt to particularly pensions and they denominated that debt in dollars to make the sales. So as the interest rates rise and the dollar, Emerging Markets are simply tottering on the edge of a cliff with no hope of avoiding the fall. ...

Market Talk- October 22, 2018
... The rush for US funding at year end is likely to be extreme. Emerging markets are in meltdown yet no-one wants to admit it. ...

If you had shorted emerging markets at this point according to the above definite statement, this would have been a disaster trade.