Martin Armstrong Socrates Scam: The Myth of the Martin Armstrong Global Cooling Prediction

Martin Armstrong has claimed "Our model tracks everything including climate" and that he warned of Global cooling to the extent that he said "I follow our own models. We are moving to the Tampa region in Florida." here: The End of Global Warming — the New Ice Age — Bundle Up!.

Not surprisingly, I find third parties crediting him for the prediction of global cooling, like in this blog post about his "long term predictions" :

...
-Thanks to colding, commodities like corn will go up because of bad harvest (it already happened in 2019)

In fact, he never predicted short term global cooling to the extent that would justify his decision to move to Florida, and his models did not "follow" or analyze climate data as he claims.

This can be verified with a few web search results as follows:

His 309 year cycle model predicts the end of the current warming cycle and the start of a cooling cycle in the year 2032: The 6th Wave – Shift Pubic to Private . According to this, we would need to experience warming for another 12 years! So there must be something else that motivates him, some agenda that drives him to tweak his models to fit that agenda.

He has some allies. In February 2012 Dr Habibullo Abdusamatov predicted a "New Ice Age to Begin in 2014".

And Martin Armstrong starts noticing cold events like Great Lakes with Historical Record Ice.

Later in March 2013, Martin Armstrong creates a correlation study, fitting climate data to his 309 year cycle, as he reports in his post Are we Headed Back to an Ice Age?

That is a small effort which demonstrates how cheap his research can be.

In June 2015, in another blog post Britain Headed Back to a Mini Ice Age he claims "Now scientists are warning that what we have reported is crashing rapidly.", creating the illusion that scientists confirm his prediction.

On July 09 2015, Prof Valentina Zharkova publishes her research at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno.

And Martin Armstrong must have noticed that she actually has a simple Physics Model of the Sun that predicts Global Cooling within a time horizon as small as two years.

Only three days later Martin Armstrong follows up and expands this topic into a major campaign, mainly re-publishing, news aggregation with opinion added, often praising his models. He clearly trusts and follows the discredited scientists' predictions not his own model.

In May 2019 he takes this to the extreme where he even claims that others are copying his computer forecasts, prompted by a most likely fake reader email: Are we Heading into a Food Shortage?
Note: He is using the The Fan Email Confidence Trick.

Here, I call this Scientific Fraud which is a term that Martin Armstrong uses quite liberally in his posts.

The glaring problem with the above conjecture is that it is based on bad science by Prof Valentina Zharkova which has been debunked rigorously. Her studies had multiple fundamental errors, and one of her articles has been retracted. Interestingly, one of her papers actually predicts global warming of an additional 2.5C not cooling. For more details, see:

Heavily criticized paper blaming the sun for global warming is retracted

Winter is coming? Churnalism freezes out the facts

There’s More to That 'Mini Ice Age' Story, And Here’s Why

Martin Armstrong later re-publishes a YouTube video of another discredited climate change denier Tony Heller / Steven Goddard. See:

Steven Goddard (Tony Heller) on DeSmog

His video can still be viewed on YouTube

Meanwhile in June 2022 he flips his agenda and claims that he predicted the current heat wave as if he had never predicted cooling. In The Heat Wave is Right on Target into Peak 2024 he writes:

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, your forecast for 2022 to be hot and dry has come true

He obviously never forecast this as this manufactured email that he wrote to himself claims. Otherwise that article is rather confusing and clearly shows his schizophrenic nature.

Later he re-iterates that his imaginary models predicted that global warming catastrophe. In Climate Engineering: 40 Million in US West Without Water in 2023 he writes:

Our models have been indicating a decline in both the food and water supply

I do not see it as the main objective of this site to debunk Armstrong's quoted theories because they are clearly not his own. He is obviously always the smartest guy after the fact because he predicts everything and the opposite of it. I spot his lies and inconsistencies when he cherry-picks and misrepresents observations to fit his agenda which is to support his scam business.

In case of climate change denial, it is striking that his forecasts are clearly in conflict with reality which does again discredit him as a forecaster. He exploits every opportunity of cold weather / snowfall in the US and Europe - desperately trying to maintain the illusion. Now in the 2021/2022 period, I find that his themes are seasonal: Global Cooling in winter and Climate Engineering in summer.

This raises the question of potential funding of his efforts. I cannot offer any evidence, and such funding might not exist, but I speculate that Big Oil and / or Russia pay his bills because I wonder how he can otherwise survive after I exposed all of his business activities as scams.

Martin Armstrong Socrates Scam

Wednesday, 1 January 2020

The Myth of the Martin Armstrong Global Cooling Prediction

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