Up To Martin Armstrong's Socrates
People constantly hear Martin Armstrong say “our computer predicted…”, “the computer has been showing…”, or “the computer forecasted…” in interviews and wonder what that machine actually is.
Younger listeners often joke that it must be a Commodore 64 or an old Atari. The reality is more revealing: Armstrong’s famous “computer” is a set of simple 1980s-era BASIC and Assembler programs originally written for DOS on early IBM PCs.
These programs process one time series at a time and still run today inside DOSBox emulators. This page explains exactly what the software does, what hardware it runs on, and why the marketing language shifted from the branded name “Socrates” to the more vague and authoritative “our computer.”
What Armstrong Means by “Our Computer” / “The Computer”
In nearly every interview and blog post, Martin Armstrong refers to his forecasting system with authoritative phrases such as “our computer predicted…”, “the computer has been showing…”, “the computer forecasted…”, or “the computer projects…”.
These expressions create the impression of a powerful, autonomous, all-seeing machine that continuously monitors the world and issues unbiased forecasts. In reality, the term “the computer” (or “our computer”) is simply Armstrong’s preferred way of referring to a collection of old technical-analysis programs that he previously marketed under the brand name Socrates.
The shift in language from the specific name “Socrates” to the more vague and impressive-sounding “the computer” makes the claims harder to check and easier to present as an unquestionable authority.
The Basic Functions of Armstrong's Computer
The software consists of simple programs written in 1980s-era BASIC and Assembler that run under the DOS operating system.
Each program takes a single time series (for example, the daily closing prices of gold or a stock index) as input and produces a set of indicators, charts, and automatically generated text reports. That is the entire core function.
Armstrong’s claim that the system “watches 1,500 markets” is achieved by running the same programs repeatedly on different data series and collecting the individual outputs. The programs do not analyse multiple markets together in a single integrated process.
The most heavily promoted outputs are:
- the ECM, see Martin Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model (ECM) – A Critical Examination,
- Reversals, see The Reversal System - Engineering Perspective,
- Forecast Arrays, see Socrates Forecast Array Nonsense and
- Global Market Watch, see Global Market Watch - Hindsight is always 20/20
Detailed examinations of each of these components are available on the linked pages.
The Computer Hardware
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| IBM PC with CGA Monitor |
The original programs were developed and run on mid-1980s IBM PC hardware with CGA graphics.
The core software has remained essentially unchanged since that era. On modern machines it runs inside DOS emulators (most commonly DOSBox). A web interface was later added so the outputs could be delivered as the Socrates subscription service.
Claims that the system runs on a supercomputer are false. The programs continue to operate in their original DOS form under emulation. Further documentation of the hardware history and the supercomputer claims can be found here:
The History of Martin Armstrong's Socrates.
Lies about Super-computer
Frequently Asked Questions
QUESTION:
What computer does Martin Armstrong use?
ANSWER:
He is referring to a collection of simple 1980s-era technical analysis programs written in BASIC and Assembler that run under DOS operating system emulation.
QUESTION:
Does Martin Armstrong own a supercomputer?
ANSWER:
No. Despite marketing that implies a powerful, autonomous global machine, the software runs on standard modern PCs using free DOSBox emulation software.
QUESTION:
How does Armstrong's computer track 1,500 markets?
ANSWER:
It does not analyze them simultaneously. The 1980s software simply runs repeatedly on individual data time-series files one by one.
QUESTION:
Why is Martin Armstrong so vague about his computer?
ANSWER:
Martin Armstrong keeps the technical details of “the computer” deliberately vague for several observable reasons:
- Black-box effect: By never showing the actual code, inputs, or precise methods, he turns ordinary 1980s technical-analysis programs into an unassailable authority that cannot easily be examined or criticised.
- High-tech illusion: Vague language encourages listeners to imagine a powerful modern AI or physical supercomputer. Revealing that the software runs in DOSBox on ordinary PCs would immediately undermine that image. This is consistent with earlier false claims that the system ran on machines such as the IBM Sequoia supercomputer.
- Protecting the mystique and the narrative: The same vagueness supports long-running stories that the U.S. government kept him in prison because he refused to hand over the source code. Specific technical disclosure would make those claims harder to maintain and would allow independent scrutiny of what the programs actually do.
Socrates Computer Program Demos
Below are some video clips that show his program in operation. The program has interesting sounds, like a retro game.
