A Self-fulfilling Financial Forecast

The Socrates Self-fulfilling Financial Forecast is a fundamental part of Martin Armstrong's smoke and mirrors machine. I will describe it below with two cases. These cases show how this trick is used to keep subscribers hooked, those subscribers who are struggling to make sense of Socrates.

The following model case is extracted from the Martin Armstrong subscription only Private Blog, Posted Dec 7, 2019.

It documents how a financial forecast is constructed to be always true but worthless nevertheless.

Here is how: We are in December 2019.

1. If the DOW goes higher than 28,174 then it may reach 30,000 (7.1% rise).
2. If the DOW goes higher as in 1), and if after January it declines, then the DOW made a high in January.
3. If the DOW made a high in January as in 2) then it could decline in the 1st quarter 2021.

Obviously, the above three statements are always true. In particular, 3) is true because the definition of a date-constrained high is that before and after it, the price must be lower.

The original post:

if it exceeds the November high, then it can rally into the ECM and test the 30,000 level. We must be concerned that a high in conjunction with that model could point to a sharp correction into the 1st quarter 2012.

Notice "could".

The ECM target date for the high is 18 January (the date constraint for the high).

Martin Armstrong is quite aware of this self-fulfilling feature because he implies with great confidence that the ECM is always correct (cannot be proven false):

In Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion December 29, 2019, 03:49:29 PM the scam guru Martin Armstrong writes using his fake account:

If we see a high in line with the ECM the market has to go down or the ECM will be proven to be completely false.

It is like selling 1=1 as a forecast.

---

Here is another case more than two years later, in an echo chamber discussion Private blog confusion. Posted Feb 14 2022.

It is a conversation mainly between long-time shills @AdvancedOwl3516, @Dry-Consequence9612 and @Polzivateli. The staged conversation addresses questions that most likely would have been received by Socrates subscriber support. It ends with "perfect" resolution i.e.all questions answered, (Socrates never wrong) and up-selling (additional market Tesla):

Private blog confusion. The private blog has been a bit erratic this weekend. So far we have been told high on ECM turning point. Low on ECM turning point. Down into 2023, Capital inflows/outflows phew ! Is the Private blog hedged ? perhaps Laterlus can decipher what it is really saying,for us. He can normally shed more light as to what marty is trying to say.

The textbook shill advice (self-fulfilling forecast):

It's always if else.

If March is the high of the market, then there will be a decline in the first quarter of 2023. In general, this is not a super bullish for the subsequent period.

Conversely, if March is the low of the market, then it means steady growth further.

And the sycophantic conclusion:

So glad I joined this blog. I was getting so disillusioned with Socrates, until I discovered the correct way to use the information from the posts on this forum

That is how Martin Armstrong wants it to be. Did I forget to say that he is a charlatan?

See also:

Socrates Forecast Array Nonsense

Martin Armstrong The Hyper Shill