Socrates and Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Martin Armstrong claims that his Socrates system uses Artificial Intelligence (AI) for resolution of complexity.

Here I prove quickly that he does not have any such thing.

In a press interview Martin Armstrong, Independent Financial Consultant (emphasis added)

I studied computer engineering and artificial intelligence and created (1972) a program that related different fields, economic data, with my great passion, history. The program analyzed a large database looking for a pattern that would explain these ups and downs in the world economy.

I observed that the financial panics, from 1683 to 1907, were separated by an average of 3,141 days (8.6 years), the number pi multiplied by a thousand. And so my code emerged, which not only predicts the fall of economies, it also predicts wars and political changes.

This is all it is. His AI.

 On his own site in AI programming techniques he writes on Nov 20, 2013:

Neural Nets I have never seen work quite frankly because something is missing.

With this he not only confirms that Socrates does not use AI, but he testifies that he does not even know what AI is. Because he uses AI in the most prevalent form of Neural Nets every day at least when he uses Google services. 

In a September 2020 YouTube home video interview at Martin Armstrong – Rich People Selling Stocks Again he says at around 54:25:00:

Socrates is the only fully functioning artificial intelligence system in the world. It actually writes reports ... no human action whatsoever - the computer is writing all the reports on everything. It's not biased .. the numbers are the numbers, that's it.

He claims that he is the exclusive author of his contraption:

AT&T: The Biggest Traitor to the American People?

The coding of the actual AI trading and structure of analysis is done ONLY by myself.

There are many contradictions in this, including the fact that he was never a computer programmer See:

Martin Armstrong The Computer Programmer

But it gets worse.

Problems with Basic Math

Contrary to his repeated claims that he created the computer code himself, he is so illiterate that he cannot even use a pocket calculator to calculate a percentage. The following examples are not isolated typos.

In: What’s Happening in India?
He under-represents the number of Covid-19 infections and deaths in India by a factor of 100 which is an error of 10,000%. Quote:

Out of a population of 1.4 billion, there have been 17.6 million infections to date, which is 0.0125%.
... and the total deaths have reached 198,000. While that does sound like a lot, it is still 0.00014%.

Check:
17.6million/1.4billion=0.0125%? Wrong. Error: 10,000%
198,000/1.4billion=0.00014%? Wrong. Error: 10,000%

In: 97% Scientists Do Not Agree with Climate Change or the Solution
He under-represents the number of respondents by a factor of 100 which is an error of 10,000%. Quote:

If we take the 75 responses of 10,000 scientists surveyed, that means that 0.0075%

Check:
75/10,000=0.0075%? Wrong. Error: 10,000%

But here he claims he created something he calls AI that others have not yet achieved: A gimmick. At Google MUM Search Engine – Is it Dangerous?

he writes:

I learned how to create an AI system that would seem alive. It would have a personality. Curse at it, and it would curse back. But it wasn’t alive. It could not think for itself. To accomplish the next level, I had to teach it how to analyze on its own. That could never be accomplished through a neural net.

Here you have it. He claims his "AI" is better than a contemporary neural network. We all know  he likes to sell fake gimmicks to his clients - here it clearly shows.

If you don't believe me, check out this New York Times article::

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS; Japanese Regulators Get a 2d 'Scalp' Under Their Belts

Martin A. Armstrong, a show-boating investment manager who was well known among Japanese corporate investors for his persuasive sales pitches..

Notice, they don’t call him a great programmer, forecaster, guru, economist, financier, trader, hedge fund manager, historian, scientist or anything else but a show-boating salesman. Because that’s what he was and has always been ever since the times he could not get into college. A salesman that pitches bullshit, for you can't teach an old dog new tricks. And every sensible man now knows it. Up until 1999 when he was charged he was not known as a programmer. Then all of the sudden, he somehow became a programmer. At the age of 50. In jail. It’s like saying “I started to do ballet at 50 and became a famous ballet dancer".

Some of his "AI" is nothing more than a few back-of-an envelope calculations that are extrapolated into the future. At best, it is simple technical analysis - arithmetic wrapped in word processing templates.

More of the same in:

The Reversal System - Engineering Background

Price Predictions

Economic Confidence Model, just a play on numbers of 8.6

The Global Correlation Model