In the following
Armstrong Interview Paris, France
Martin Armstrong makes the ultimate claim in the first sentence of the video:
Cela vous est-il arrivé de faire des prédictions qui sont avérées totalment fausses ?
Have you ever made predictions that are completely wrong?
No, not really, because it's, everything is connected.
He says he never fails. The Mother of all Forecast Claims!
More specifically, he claims that his predictions are accurate to the day. In:
The Real Implications of Forecasting Are More Profound Than you Think he writes:
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I attended the Berlin Conference and I must say, you told us to expect a move between the Benchmarks in gold, and that the first quarter looked to be a countertrend move. You seem to be able to map out the direction of markets all the time. I am still working out the best way to read the arrays. But I have to ask. Why have you not been given the Noble Prize with such a long track record that is unbeatable?
REPLY: The fact that we can forecast any event to the day PROVES that markets are by no means RANDOM.
Computer never wrong
Furthermore, he claims that his computer is free of human bias and never wrong. In Opinion Infected by Bias. he writes:
The computer has never been wrong because it sees trends without interjecting some theory or bias which infects all opinion.
In
The Time of Separation of the USA is Rapidly Approaching. he again writes:
Our computer has NEVER been wrong.
As any other charlatan and professional trickster, Martin Armstrong is an expert in fabricating deceptive material in support of his claims.
The details of how he does this are very important: His material is highly ambiguous. This means that for any of his fraudulent claims, there are multiple conflicting views in his smoke and mirrors machine. To get an idea, see:
Socrates Technical Analysis Prediction Magic
He only needs to cherry-pick in hindsight the matching piece that support his agenda. I have seen him spending days looking for such pieces in the most obscure places just to prove his point. This web site exposes his methods in great detail. Do not expect this to be simple.
Compare his fraudulent projections with the facts:
Major failed Predictions
Monthly Reversal Failures December 2018
Martin Armstrong Financial Advice: Do not buy the Low!
Socrates Long Term Past Performance Review
Weekly Superposition Event in the DOW October 2018
Quarterly Superposition Event in Gold 2015
The End of Bitcoin Currency, another failed forecast from Armstrong
Prediction of ECM model for 2015.75
ECM failure 2020
The Martin Armstrong Lie Detector
Please let me use the remainder of this page for a special type of his predictions:
Claimed Successful Predictions Armstrong Never Made
Martin Armstrong: No Forecaster, Just a Cycle Nerd Lost in Hallucinations
Martin Armstrong isn’t a forecaster—he’s a cycle nerd entangled in delusional, math-deficient fantasies, peddling regular oscillations as prophecy to scam subscribers.
His Economic Confidence Model (ECM), a static 1980s algorithm misapplying pi to market chaos, claims “pinpoint” predictions of global events—the Berlin Wall fall, 1987 crash, 1989 Nikkei peak, and 1998 Russia crisis—but every “hit” crumbles under scrutiny. No pre-event records (newsletters, interviews, client reports) exist; only post-hoc blog posts and shill accounts amplify these myths years later!
His ECM, far from AI wizardry, is a simplistic wave model ignoring real-world variables—Japan’s asset bubble, Russia’s debt spiral, or Black Monday’s leverage traps—as subscribers lament its dud trades in blog complaints. Armstrong’s inflated ego, not math skill, drives this: his pi-obsessed 8.6-year cycles (3,141 days) are numerological nonsense, not science, failing to predict or trade volatile markets.
This Confirmation Bias Scam, fueled by a $700M Ponzi conviction NYT, 2000, fleeces investors with $9,000 Socrates subs and $2,750 conferences, selling hallucinations as foresight. Traders know cycles don’t work—Armstrong’s just the loudest nerd proving it.
Armstrong has not even been trying to build or improve his forecasting abilities. Instead he refined his methods amplifying manufactured false claims and drowning out critics.
For many of his predictions, the earliest going back decades, there is no evidence anywhere that he ever made them. Please let me follow the path of these lies, how they are being been told. Martin Armstrong created them it in his own mind. Many of them are then told by his shills in "The Forecaster The Movie". That's his playbook served on a silver platter. But that's only the starting point, the template.
He pays show hosts such as on YouTube and other social media platforms to
interview him, hundreds of times, resulting in millions of viewers. Each interview includes a marketing package with the link to his blog site and his narrative of fake past
achievements in the description of the video and in the introduction of
the host. This leads to what is called a "Confirmation Bias Scam". Viewers are lead to believe that what gets said by so many different people must be true. Many don't even question what is being said. Even the AI chat bots fall for this scam.
2007 Stock Market High Prediction
In Aladdin v Socrates he claims on Dec 20, 2022:
... when Socrates got the whole crash right. It picked the very day of the high in 2007 and they were calling it on the floor Armstrong’s Revenge.
At the time, Armstrong was imprisoned for fraud and wasn't making ANY public predictions. His Socrates computer was not running at the time.
The 1987 Stock Market Crash That Armstrong Never Predicted
Here’s another whopper from Martin Armstrong’s hall of tall tales: He claims his Economic Confidence Model (ECM) and early Socrates system nailed the October 19, 1987, Black Monday crash—when the Dow tanked 22.6%—right down to the exact day (1987.8 in his fancy decimal jargon).
He even brags that his “forecast” saved clients from ruin and got him a call from the Brady Commission to explain his genius. Sounds impressive, right? Except it’s pure fiction, with zero evidence to back it up.
Dig for any pre-1987 newsletters, interviews, or client reports showing this prediction, and you’ll find nothing—just crickets. The story only pops up decades later such as in this paper by his trusted buddy and Reputation Launderer who did his movie The Forecaster (2014), Marcus Vetter:
ABOUT MARTIN ARMSTRONG
In fall 1987, Armstrong was invited by the Brady Commission to share his views on the 1987 market crash ... which he predicted to the precise day using his computer models. The target date of 1987.8 was precisely October 19th, 1987 the day of the low.
This is echoed by promoters like Larry Edelson.
Here’s the kicker: Armstrong filed for personal bankruptcy in September 1987, a month before the crash, drowning in $4.4 million in debts, including $2.7 million in unpaid taxes from gold sales, with his estate in liquidation and his home facing foreclosure. See: MoneyWeek, 2007; Los Angeles Times, 2000). You’re telling me a guy scrambling to save his house had the time or cash to research—or bet on—a market crash? Laughable.
And the invitation to the Brady Commission? Check yourself. Here is the report. Not a shred of evidence. The official Brady report has no mention of either Armstrong nor his Princeton Economics as it was known back then.
His Socrates, a clunky 1980s algorithm spitting out vague signals (check Socrates Subscriber Testimonials for subscriber gripes), couldn’t predict the weather, let alone a global market meltdown. Yet Armstrong spins this myth to sell useless reports costing hundreds, $150 monthly Socrates subscriptions, and $2,750 conferences, fleecing clients with promises of prophetic insight. This is the Confirmation Bias Scam in action: a fabricated “success” propped up by shills, designed to milk victims while Armstrong dodged accountability for his debts and 1987 CFTC charges for—you guessed it—misrepresenting performance. Same old scam, just a different day.
"Martin Armstrong the only one to forecast the Fall of the Berlin Wall"
In his Jan 3, 2019 blog post Australia Inserting Nano-Chips in $50 & $100 Bills to Track Underground Economy & Coming Barter System, Martin Armstrong claims:
Our model is famous for forecasting the collapse of Communism and even the fall of the Berlin Wall (November 9, 1989; 1989.857).
Martin Armstrong’s assertion that he uniquely and precisely forecast the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989, using his Socrates system and Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is a manufactured claim that lacks credible, contemporaneous evidence and relies on a self-referential echo chamber that collapses under scrutiny.
Notably, despite his blog’s activity in 2014, no post marking the Berlin Wall’s 25th anniversary - a prime moment for such a bold claim - exists, highlighting the absence of timely documentation.
Instead, endorsements by shills emerge post-event 29 years later, recycling Armstrong’s own narrative without independent verification.
The claim is amplified by Armstrong’s acolytes such as in this tweet on Jan 03 2019: Zilvergoudwinkel @ZilverGoud on X.
Later it is used by his business partner Michael Campbell in an X post on Sep 16 2022 to promote his talk show:
Saturday on MT - Martin Armstrong - the only guest I ever got a call from management immediately after his appearance. Also the only one to forecast the Fall of the Berlin Wall and the top in the Nikkei to the day.
and on this web page:
Don’t say you weren’t warned
Martin Armstrong’s computer modelling successfully predicted the fall of the Berlin Wall and the Soviet Union.
Critically, Socrates, described by Armstrong as “AI-driven” but exposed
as a 1980s-era static algorithm with ambiguous outputs (see Martin Armstrong's Socrates), lacks the technical capacity for precise geopolitical forecasting, rendering such a pinpoint prediction implausible.
Again, no evidence for his claim, fabricated to the extreme, a hallmark of his Confirmation Bias Scam.
"The computer predicted the fall of Russia in 1998"
Martin Armstrong’s claim that his Economic Confidence Model (ECM) and Socrates system forecast the Russian financial crisis of August 17, 1998—when Russia defaulted on $40 billion in domestic debt, devalued the ruble by 75%, and triggered a global market shock—is another ego-driven hallucination, retrofitted to sell his dud services with no pre-1998 evidence to back it up.
Armstrong asserts his 8.6-year (3,141-day) cycle pinpointed the default’s exact date in multiple blog posts, allegedly warning clients to exit Russian bonds and saving them millions.
He made his Russia collapse claim himself in his "The Forecaster The Movie", echoed in the same movie by his surrogate Larry Edelson.
In his blog, Armstrong explicitly ties the warning to exiting ruble Treasury bills (Russian bonds), claiming it averted a liquidity crisis that "blew up" Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) and saved his clients from massive losses ("millions" inferred from the $40B scale and LTCM's $4.6B bailout):
The Coming LIQUIDITY Crisis
I refused to join [the Russian debt trade] and warned them that my computer projected this was going to collapse. ... They had borrowed $40 billion by issuing three-month ruble Treasury bills... Bribing the IMF to prevent a default, they were all on this trade expecting free money.
By 1998, Armstrong was entangled in his own legal mess, facing CFTC/SEC probes for his $1 billion+ fraud, hiding Princeton Economics’ losses (CFTC, 1999; SEC, 1999), escalating to an FBI raid by September 1999, culminating in his 1999 arrest for fraud. See:
Martin Armstrong's 1999 Indictment
At a subsequent meeting of the Credit Committee in or about October 1998, the
Chairman of the Committee noted that he was “skeptical and suspicious” of ARMSTRONG’s activities and that those activities “look[ed] like a Ponzi scheme.”
Prophet? More like a cornered con.
No pre-1998 evidence backs Armstrong’s “1998.6” claim—just a vague June 1998 FT quote on “Russian troubles,” far from pinpointing the default or bond exits in advance. For a system as coarse-grained as his ECM, Armstrong would need to quote a prediction that was made 1997 or earlier.
His ECM, a static numerological toy misapplying pi to market chaos, lacks the rigor to predict complex events like Russia’s debt spiral, driven by falling oil prices, Chechen war costs, and IMF bailout failures—variables no 1980s algorithm could model. The crisis wasn’t a “cycle” but a geopolitical cascade. To get an idea about the chasm, see: Socrates and Artificial Intelligence (AI)
"Martin Armstrong predicted the 1989 Top in the Nikkei to the Day"
This lie is told in vivid detail as an anecdote in Armstrong's "The Forecaster The Movie" by his trusted long-time shill and business partner Michael Campbell. But in a 2015 online publication of the reputable German magazine "Die Zeit", you can read his claim clearly classified as being his own and nothing else (translated, emphasis added):
Armstrong claims ... to have used his system to forecast the collapse of the Japanese Nikkei in 1989 ...
The narrative surfaces post-crash in other retrospective pieces, like Armstrong’s 2012 blog archive but these are self-serving echoes without archival proof:
ABOUT
Among them was December, 1989, which marked the Nikkei’s peak before it crashed. This call earned him the magazine Equity’s award as the top North American economist, and a big following in Japan, where the idea of cycles, a tenet of Eastern belief, did not seem so far-fetched.
No contemporaneous records, such as dated newsletters, media
interviews, or verifiable client reports from 1989 or earlier, support
this precision call.
"Martin Armstrong predicted the March 2020 US Stock Market Low"
Multiple of his shills claimed that he predicted the March 2020 low (which was a result of the Covid-19 pandemic). There is no evidence of such a prediction. it. In fact the opposite is true. For details, see:
Martin Armstrong's 2020 ECM Turning Point
His claims are fraudulent misrepresentations of performance. Why?
Because Martin Armstrong sells his forecasts in the form of expensive reports, services and seminars.
That is why his business is a scam. Pure fraud.
